Friday, May 28, 2010

The 12-Day-Delivery Relief

After realizing Bill's despair about a too short 12-Day-Delivery I rushed along and spared no effort so I could assure him that this won't be the case ;-))

I looked at all my routings from this year for the delivery, and assembled them into this graph, showing how the predicted Time-to-go changed over the last 40 days. A 12 day delivery is on the list, but clearly not his most pressing problem. The range is from 12.5 to 18 days. The red lines are closer together today as they were in the beginning, so is the range narrowing, perhaps due to - on average - more wind? Possible, but no real indication for this. And keep in mind that Cirrugator is routing with racing in mind, while delivery is supposed to be more relaxed AND BEING REALLY CAREFUL WHEN USING THE SPINNAKER, therefore at least an extra half day has to be granted.

My bet is 15days 9hours, which means when departing at noon on the 1st, they will arrive exactly at midnight of the 16th. In the dark. Of course.

Anyone else betting?


  1. It's hard to bet against a midnight arrival. History is on your side for that. No matter; I'll be there whatever time you guys arrive!

  2. Arrivals always seem to happen in the dark of course!